Table of Contents
Context
- The Vienna talks aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, have slowed down given the new Russian demand seeking written guarantees that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia for its attack on Ukraine will not in any way harm its future trade and defence ties with Iran.
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Russian blocking of the deal
- Though the U.S. and Europe are reportedly looking for alternatives to revive the nuclear deal without Russia, it would not be easy given the role envisaged for Russia under the agreement.
- Russia, an original signatory of the JCPOA, is a member of the joint commission that supervises Iran’s compliance. Also, Russia is required to take control of Iran’s excess enriched uranium and work with Iran to turn its Fordow nuclear plant into a research facility.
- Also, Iran and China would not be ready to go ahead with the deal without Russia given that Iran treats Russia as one of its allies.
- This leaves the future of the nuclear deal in Russian hands.
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Concerns over the delay
Deepen security crisis in West Asia
- As per available reports, after the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran started enriching uranium to a higher purity. Now, nuclear experts believe Iran is just months away from having enough high purity uranium to make a nuclear bomb. This adversely impacts the security situation in West Asia.
- The growing nuclear capability of Iran and the delay in concluding a new deal to curb its nuclear programme threaten to deepen the security crisis in West Asia.
Global oil prices
- Removing sanctions on Iran and letting Iran’s oil enter the global market could help ease oil and gas prices, which shot up after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
- The delay in finalizing this agreement could inflate global oil prices.
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Recommendations
The negotiating countries should continue to push for a collective agreement.
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